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In addition to the public exit poll for sky, yougov earlier sold a private exit poll to this fund, which provided data to traders that matched the results Twyman presented on television, effectively giving them an edge for betting on the rise in the pound. Yougov staff code-named it Operation Pomegranate. It charged the hedge fund roughly 1 million, according to knowledgeable sources. Separately, yougov gave sky its poll for free. The hedge fund did extremely well, according to three sources familiar with the situation. Opinion polls published in the British press during the critical final days of the campaign helped voters make up their minds—about both whether to take part in the referendum and which side they were. But the relationships between polling firms and hedge funds in the lead-up to the vote, and on the day, created an inherent conflict. With one hand, pollsters fed the public information that affected the outcome and moved the markets.

He twice told the world on election night that leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information. Bloombergs account is based in part on interviews over seven months with more than 30 knowledgeable current and former polling-company executives, consultants and traders, nearly all of whom spoke only on the condition they not be named because of confidentiality agreements. Pollsters said they believed Brexit yielded one of the most profitable single days in the history of their industry. Some essay hedge funds that hired them cleared in the hundreds of millions of dollars, while their industry on the whole was battered by the chaos Brexit wrought in global financial markets. . Although confidentiality agreements have made it difficult to discover the identities of many of the hedge funds that bought exclusive or syndicated exit polls, at least a dozen were involved, and potentially many more, bloomberg found. The private exit poll that appears to have had the most clients was conducted by farages favorite pollster and friend, damian lyons-Lowe, whose company is called. It was sold to multiple clients and correctly predicted leave, according to farage and other sources familiar with the results. In an interview with Bloomberg, farage said he learned of Survations results before making at least one of two public concessions that night, meaning there was a good chance he was feeding specious sentiment into markets. As yougovs Twyman predicted a remain victory on sky, three of his colleagues were watching from inside the london office of a hedge fund.

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Others learned the likely outcome of public, potentially market-moving polls before they were published, offering surefire trades. Featured in, bloomberg Businessweek, july 2, 2018. Photographer: Olivia harris/Reuters, hedge fund managers, of course, try to beat the market by getting the best information they can. For exit polling data, thats a tricky business. Pollsters have always sold surveys to private clients, but. Law restricts them from releasing exit-poll data before voting ends. While some of the practices discovered by Bloomberg fall into a gray area, the law is clear: It would have been a violation if, prior to the polls closing, any section of the public had gotten the same data the pollsters sold privately to hedge funds. One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a london currency william trading company after he moved into politics.

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A few minutes later, Ed Conway, the sky news economics editor, appeared before a giant screen showing the spike. The pound had been tracking polls for months, conway explained. Whether they were on couches in London or at trading desks in Chicago, people watching sky or reading headlines sparked by its coverage had every reason to think remain would prevail. But not quite everyone. Behind the scenes, a small group of people had a secret—and billions of dollars were at stake. Hedge funds aiming to win big from trades that day had hired yougov and at least five other polling companies, including Farage's favorite pollster. Their services, on the day and in the days leading up to the vote, varied, but pollsters sold hedge funds critical, advance information, including data that would have been illegal for them to give the public. Some hedge funds gained confidence, through private exit polls, that most Britons had voted to leave the eu, or that the vote was far closer than the public believed—knowledge pollsters provided while voting was still underway and hours ahead of official tallies. These hedge funds were in the perfect position to earn fortunes by short selling the British pound.

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Short : How Hedge funds Used Private polls

He explained that the firm had been home tracking the same voters—and they had moved farther into the remain camp that day. Based on that, Twyman said, we now expect that the United Kingdom will remain part of the european Union. Its 52 percent Remain, 48 percent leave, so its still close and its still too early to know definitely—but, based on the figures that were seeing, based on the trends that have occurred, and based on historical precedent—we npr think that Remain are in the strongest position. As in past elections, Twyman added, voters had embraced the status quo on Election day. Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, sky had aired a concession from the worlds most prominent Brexit backer, buttressed by data from yougov. In a few hours these scoops would prove spectacularly wrong, but in the meantime they spawned worldwide headlines, including from Bloomberg News and virtually everyone else. This one, which ran atop the.

K.s leading news site, the mail Online, was typical. Referring to farage's UK Independence party, it read: breaking news: ukip leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes defeat within seconds of voting closing as final poll gives Remain the edge 52 48 in historic eu referendum. The news pushed the. K.s currency up—herding investors toward a cliff hours ahead of one of the largest crashes for any major currency since the birth of the modern global financial system. Trillions of dollars in asset values would be wiped off the books, but not just yet. At 10:52.m., the pound rose above.50 and reached its highest mark in six months.

On June 23, 2016, sky news projected the words in or out across the top of a london building as an orchestral score ratcheted up the tension. In or out—it is too late to change your mind, declared Adam boulton, the veteran anchor, seated in a makeshift studio across from Big Ben. The polls have closed in the. K.s historic referendum on eu membership. Election nights are major productions for British broadcasters, but Brexit was bigger, with sky viewers watching worldwide.


After the dramatic intro, boulton jumped straight in with a huge exclusive, declaring he had breaking news. Nigel Farage, the global face of the Brexit campaign, had given sky what sounded like a concession. His photo and a statement filled the screen, as faisal Islam, skys political editor, read Farages words aloud: Its been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and it looks like remain will edge. Ukip and i are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future. In the next segment, boulton delivered another exclusive. Joe twyman, head of political research for. Yougov, one of the. K.s most prominent polling firms, appeared on set with the results of an online exit poll conducted for sky.

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The computer writing and electronic products and information sectors, as well as finance and insurance, and government are poised to gain substantially from the use of big data. There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of big data. By 2018, the United States alone could face a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions. Several issues will have to be addressed to capture the full potential of big data. Policies related to privacy, security, intellectual property, and even liability will need to be addressed in a big data world. Organizations need not only to put the right talent and technology in place but also structure workflows and incentives to optimize the use of big data. Access to data is critical—companies will increasingly need to integrate information from multiple data sources, often from third parties, and the incentives have to be in place to enable this).

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From the standpoint of competitiveness and the potential capture of value, all companies need to take big data seriously. In most industries, established competitors and new entrants alike will leverage data-driven strategies to innovate, compete, and capture value from deep and up-to-real-time information. Indeed, we found early examples of such use of data in every sector we examined. The use of big data will underpin new waves of productivity growth and consumer surplus. For example, we estimate that a retailer using big data to the full has the potential to increase its operating margin by more than 60 percent. Big data offers considerable benefits to consumers as well as to companies and organizations. For instance, services enabled by personal-location data can allow consumers to capture 600 billion in economic surplus. While the use of big data will matter across sectors, some sectors are event set for greater gains. We compared the historical productivity of sectors in the United States with the potential of these sectors to capture value from big data (using an index that combines several quantitative metrics and found that the opportunities and challenges vary from sector to sector.

data collection and analysis to conduct controlled experiments to make better management decisions; others are using data for basic low-frequency forecasting to high-frequency nowcasting to adjust their business levers just in time. Third, big data allows ever-narrower segmentation of customers and therefore much more precisely tailored products or services. Fourth, sophisticated analytics can substantially improve decision-making. Finally, big data can be used to improve the development of the next generation of products and services. For instance, manufacturers are using data obtained from sensors embedded in products to create innovative after-sales service offerings such as proactive maintenance (preventive measures that take place before a failure occurs or is even noticed). 00:00, podcast, distilling value and driving productivity from mountains of data. Michael Chui discusses how the scale and scope of companies' access to data is changing the way they do business. The use of big data will become a key basis of competition and growth for individual firms.

If us healthcare were to use big data creatively and effectively to drive efficiency and quality, the for sector could create more than 300 billion in value every year. Two-thirds of that would be in the form of reducing us healthcare expenditure by about 8 percent. In the developed economies of Europe, government administrators could save more than 100 billion (149 billion) in operational efficiency improvements alone by using big data, not including using big data to reduce fraud and errors and boost the collection of tax revenues. And users of services enabled by personal-location data could capture 600 billion in consumer surplus. The research offers seven key insights. Data have swept into every industry and business function and are now an important factor of production, alongside labor and capital. We estimate that, by 2009, nearly all sectors in the us economy had at least an average of 200 terabytes of stored data (twice the size of us retailer Wal-Mart's data warehouse in 1999) per company with more than 1,000 employees. There are five broad ways in which using big data can create value. First, big data can unlock significant value by making information transparent and usable at much higher frequency.

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Beijing/washington the United States and China exchanged the first salvos in what could become a protracted trade war on Friday, slapping tariffs on 34 billion worth of each others goods and giving no sign of willingness to start talks aimed at a reaching homework a truce. Big data will become a key basis of competition, underpinning new waves of productivity growth, innovation, and consumer surplus—as long as the right policies and enablers are in place. The amount of data in our world has been exploding, and analyzing large data sets—so-called big data—will become a key basis of competition, underpinning new waves of productivity growth, innovation, and consumer surplus, according to research by mgi and McKinsey's Business Technology Office. Leaders in every sector will have to grapple with the implications of big data, not just a few data-oriented managers. The increasing volume and detail of information captured by enterprises, the rise of multimedia, social media, and the Internet of Things will fuel exponential growth in data for the foreseeable future. Mgi studied big data in five domains—healthcare in the United States, the public sector in Europe, retail in the United States, and manufacturing and personal-location data globally. Big data can generate value in each. For example, a retailer using big data to the full could increase its operating margin by more than 60 percent. Harnessing big data in the public sector has enormous potential, too.


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  2. Big data will become a key basis of competition, underpinning new waves of productivity growth, innovation, and consumer surplus—as long as the right policies and enablers are in place. The amount of data in our world has been exploding, and analyzing large data sets—so-called big data—will.

  3. Degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a professor of Economics with the. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. The world's largest business website, cnnmoney is cnn's exclusive business site with business, markets, technology, media, luxury, personal finance and small business news.

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